GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE: Evaluating Terror Threats Around the World

December 17, 2003

GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE:
Evaluating Terror Threats Around the World

Grades: 6-8, 9-12

Subjects: Current Events, Geography, Global History

Related New York Times Article
"Bin Laden and Omar: Far Harder to Find, By DAVID ROHDE", December 17, 2003

Overview of Lesson Plan:: In this lesson, students examine the physical and political geography of countries considered to harbor terrorist factions. Using this "intelligence," they evaluate the level of the threat and make recommendations for an appropriate response from world leaders.

SUGGESTED TIME ALLOWANCE:
1 hour

OBJECTIVES:
Students will:

Explore what they know about the current war in Afghanistan.
Learn about the conditions surrounding the ongoing hunt for Osama bin Laden and Mullah Muhammed Omar by reading and discussing the article "Bin Laden and Omar: Far Harder to Find."
In groups, investigate the physical and political geography of countries where terrorist factions are known to exist; create presentation posters evaluating conditions for eradicating any terrorist threats.
Individually, write a summary of their "intelligence" findings; compare proposed action in their assigned country to the war in Iraq.

RESOURCES / MATERIALS:

student journals
classroom board
one blank map of each of the following countries: Afghanistan, Columbia, Albania, Rwanda, Burundi, and the Philippines [available at About.com's "Free Blank Outline Maps of the Countries and Continents of the World"] (one map per group)
copies of "Bin Laden and Omar: Far Harder to Find" (one per student)
geography resources, contemporary global history texts, computers with Internet access
poster board or large pieces of construction paper (one per group)
markers and colored pencils (enough for students to share)

ACTIVITIES / PROCEDURES:

WARM-UP/DO-NOW: In their journals, students respond to the following prompt (written on the board prior to class): "Why did the United States go to war against Afghanistan? Has this war been won? Why or why not?" After a few minutes, allow students to share their responses. Depending on the responses, you may want to remind students that the United States went to war against the Taliban leadership in Afghanistan for harboring the terrorist organization Al Quaeda, the group believed to be responsible for the attacks of September 11, 2001. Currently, the leader of Al Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, and the leader of the Taliban, Mullah Muhammad Omar, have not been captured.
As a class, read and discuss the article "Bin Laden and Omar: Far Harder to Find," focusing on the following questions:
1. According to the article, what makes the search for Osama bin Laden and Mullah Muhammad Omar different than the search for Saddam Hussein?
2. Where is Osama bin Laden believed to be hiding?
3. What is the terrain of this region like?
4. How many U.S. troops are stationed in Afghanistan? How many are in Iraq?
5. How does Mr. bin Laden communicate, according to the article?
6. How much reward money is being offered for information leading to the capture of Osama bin Laden?
7. Where is Mullah Omar believed to be hiding?
8. Who has been accused of hiding both bin Laden and Mullah Omar?
9. Why did the capture of Khalid Shaikh Mohammed raise hopes of capturing Mr. bin Laden? What became of these hopes?
10. What intelligence have officials gathered from tribal areas in Afghanistan? How reliable is this intelligence?
11. Why have videotapes of Mr. bin Laden proved unhelpful in pinpointing his location?
12. What do American and Pakistani officials hope will help future intelligence gathering in the region?
Divide students into six groups and assign each group one of the following countries: Afghanistan, Columbia, Albania, Rwanda, Burundi, and the Philippines. Give each group a blank map of its assigned country [available from About.com's "Free Blank Outline Maps of the Countries and Continents of the World"].
Explain to students that each of the assigned countries is believed to harbor terrorist organizations that may or may not pose a threat to other countries in the region and around the world. Acting as a team of military intelligence specialists, each group is charged with the mission of evaluating the terrorist threat posed by factions in each country, and to evaluate the physical and political geography of the region.
This intelligence will be presented in poster form in a class "briefing session" where groups will give their recommendations for the best way to combat the terrorist threat in each country. Using all available resources, students in each group should begin by gathering the following information about its assigned country (copied on the board or in a handout for easier student access):
- What conditions would foreign troops stationed in this country face? On a blank map of the country, sketch the topography of the terrain; include annotations about the climate conditions.
- Describe the civilian population of the country?
- How many foreign (U.S. or coalition forces) troops, if any, are currently stationed in this country? What are the objectives of these forces?
- Does the United Nations, or another non-governmental aid agency, have a presence in the country? If so, what are their objectives?
- Evaluate the government in power: What type of government is it? Do the government leaders support the terrorist factions (state-sponsored terrorism) or would they be supportive to coalition forces trying to eradicate the terrorist elements?
- Evaluate the country's economy: How stable is the country's economy? On what products and industries does the economy depend? Who controls these industries?
- What are the most likely targets of terrorist action inside the country? What are the likely targets outside the country?
- Evaluate the country's borders: What countries does this country border? How long are the borders? What is the terrain along the borders? What is your group's assessment of the governments in power along the borders? Do they support the terrorist threat or would they be supportive to coalition forces trying to eradicate the terrorist elements?
- How would you evaluate the threat posed by terrorist factions in this country? What is the estimated terrorist population? What are their objectives? What weapons do they have, and for what tactics are they known? Do you consider the threat imminent inside the country, in bordering regions, or in other countries throughout the world? Explain.
- What preliminary recommendations would your team suggest for eradicating the threat of terrorism in this country?
[Note: Students may want to begin their research at the CIA World Factbook Web site.]
After students have had a chance to conduct their research, reconvene and discuss the following questions: What type of terrorist threat would be considered an imminent danger? On what basis should the United States, or other coalition forces, act to eradicate a terrorist threat from another country?
WRAP-UP/HOMEWORK: In a future class, allow students to present their intelligence findings and to discuss their recommendations for combating terror in each country. After each group's presentation, students should consider the following questions:
- What physical and political conditions would make a fight against terrorists in this country difficult?
- How do the recommendations the group has made reflect these conditions?
As homework, each student responds in writing to the following prompt: "Write a summary report of your team's analysis of the terrorist threat in your assigned country. Should political leaders in other countries be concerned about the growing terrorist threat in this country? If so, who should be concerned and how should they respond? Does the war in Iraq set a precedent for action in this country? Why or why not? What may be gained, or jeopardized, by attempting to eradicate this terrorist threat?"

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS:

Do you think that the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have been appropriate responses to the attacks of September 11, 2001? Why or why not?
What successes do you think there have been so far in the war against terrorism? What do you think still needs to be done?
Does the capture of Saddam Hussein constitute a victory in Iraq? Why or why not?
To the American public, would the capture of Osama bin Laden be seen as a greater victory than the capture of Hussein? Why or why not?
How do you think the capture of Saddam Hussein ranks compared to other U.S. goals in Iraq, such as the identification of weapons of mass destruction, the collection of intelligence related to terrorist networks, or the delivery of humanitarian support to the Iraqi people?
Do you think the capture of Saddam Hussein will garner more international support for the American-led occupation in Iraq? Why or why not?

EVALUATION / ASSESSMENT:
Students will be evaluated based on initial journal writing, thoughtful participation in class discussions, careful research and clear presentation of information about terrorist threats in other countries, and thoughtful completion of a summary evaluating this threat.

VOCABULARY:
terrain, confounded, saturated, infiltrate, coax, detainees, emerged, conspiracy, subsequent, subjugating, dismay, infusion

EXTENSION ACTIVITIES:

Research the activities of a terrorist organization in another country. Examples may include the Irish Republican Army, Hamas, Revolutionary Forces of Columbia (FARC), the Shining Path (SL), Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETA), the Khmer Rouge, and the Tamil Tigers (LTTE). Write a report exploring the evolution and terrorist activities of these groups. In what country and region is this group active? What are the stated goals of this organization? How prominent is this group in the world today? Does this group have ties to other terrorist organizations around the world? Does the group exist as a network? What efforts by the intelligence agencies of the governments established in these countries and by the United States have been made to dismantle these terrorist networks?
Research some of the famous manhunts in recent U.S. history for political terrorists, such as "Unabomber" Theodore Kaczynski (1996); Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh (1995); David Koresh and the Waco, Texas Branch Davidians (1993); and Randy Weaver and the Ruby Ridge, Idaho standoff (1992). Write a report that explores how and why this manhunt took place, including details such as a profile of the "Wanted" suspect, crimes for which the suspect was accused, law enforcement strategies for locating the suspect, the fugitive's strategies for escaping or evading arrest, a summary of how the suspect was eventually caught or the case ended, and an analysis or critique of the case that explores any scandals or unanswered questions surrounding the case.
Evaluate the Bush administration's strategy for combating global terrorism as presented in "The Nature of the Terrorist Threat Today," on September 20, 2001. Write an essay exploring how the strategies presented in this document explain U.S. military in the world since this address was given. Do the arguments presented here justify the wars in Afghanistan and in Iraq? Why or why not? What evidence of terror activity should be required before acting on these arguments? Are you convinced by the arguments made in this report? Why or why not? Do you think the strategy laid out here still serve as a basis for continued engagement?
Do you think terrorists might attack the United States again? Explore the reasons al Qaeda gave for launching the attacks of September 11, 2001. Regardless of the question of whether the attacks were justified, did the charges this group made against the United States have any merit? Why or why not? Write an article exploring whether the reasons the terrorists gave for the attack might be countered in less combative ways than through war.

INTERDISCIPLINARY CONNECTIONS:
Civics- How might the capture of Saddam Hussein affect the outcome of the 2004 Presidential election? Explore how the Democratic Candidates responded to the capture of Hussein. Based on these reactions, write a prediction of how you think the capture of Osama bin Laden would be received, and what impact this could have on both the Democratic primaries and on the presidential election.

Journalism- Poll students in your school about the capture of Saddam Hussein. How does this capture change their views on the war in Iraq? Does the capture of Saddam Hussein constitute a victory in the war on terrorism? How do they think the capture of Saddam Hussein ranks compared to other U.S. goals in Iraq, such as the identification of weapons of mass destruction, the collection of intelligence related to terrorist networks, or the delivery of humanitarian support to the Iraqi people? Will the capture of Saddam Hussein garner more international support for the American-led occupation in Iraq? Explore a wide range of questions such as these about the war in Iraq and present your findings in an article for your school newspaper.

Mathematics- How many square miles does Afghanistan cover? How many square kilometers? How many troops stationed in Afghanistan are their for every square mile? How many per square kilometer? How many troops would need to be stationed in Afghanistan to provide one troop for every half square kilometer in the region?

Media Studies- How does the media popularize the concept of "America's #1 Enemy"? Explore the use of media and propaganda to depict enemies of the state? What images of the enemy are put forward in the media, and how do these alter people's perceptions about an enemy? Examine news media images of Saddam Hussein published during the build-up for war in Iraq in late 2002 and early 2004, and pictures of Osama bin Laden following the attacks of September 11, 2001. How did these images sway public opinion? Can they be compared to propaganda images of German and Japanese forces during World War II? Why or why not? What makes an image an instrument of propaganda, and how do these images differ from objective news journalism? Select a few of the images you researched and create an annotated collage commenting on their impact.