January 9, 2002
U.S. Sees Battles After Afghan War in Lawless Areas
By JAMES DAO and ERIC SCHMITT
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| (Carol T. Powers for The New York Times) |
| Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz, in an interview on Monday, outlined the military's strategy for the war on terrorism. |
WASHINGTON, Jan. 7 — The war on terrorism after Afghanistan could focus on denying terrorist groups sanctuary in places like Somalia, Yemen, Indonesia and the Philippines, countries where they have sometimes operated freely, Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul D. Wolfowitz said today.
Mr. Wolfowitz's remarks, in an interview, provided one of the clearest outlines of the military's strategy for destroying terrorist networks.
While Mr. Wolfowitz has a reputation as one of the more aggressive members of President Bush's war council, his statements suggested that the Pentagon could opt to put off the bigger and politically more difficult targets in the war on terrorism like Iraq, and therefore avoid conflict with some of its most important Arab and European allies, which have been leery about taking on Baghdad.
Instead, Mr. Wolfowitz said, the military is now engaged with friendly countries like the Philippines that would welcome American help in ridding themselves of terrorist networks. The Pentagon is also looking hard at possible terror bases in countries like Somalia and Yemen that are weakly governed and ill equipped to uproot them.
Mr. Wolfowitz stressed that he was not providing an explicit forecast for the next step in the war on terrorism and that the Pentagon had not ruled out imminent military action against any country.
But he has been one of the leading advocates in the Bush administration for ousting President Saddam Hussein. And he seemed to signal to Iraq and other state sponsors of terrorism that unless they stopped harboring terrorists, they could face increased diplomatic, financial and, if necessary, military pressure from the United States.
He asserted that America's devastating air campaign in Afghanistan had already induced many nations that have supported terrorism to change their ways, and that it would serve as a powerful deterrent against future acts of terrorism.
"I'd say almost everywhere one has seen progress," he said. "A lot of that progress is motivated by the sense of American seriousness and the fear of getting on the wrong side of us."
"To the extent that's the motivation," Mr. Wolfowitz continued, "then obviously you don't want to issue a report card on those people and have them let up, because they're not doing it out of the goodness of their heart."
Iraq, however, has shown no signs of opposing terrorism, Mr. Wolfowitz said. While President Saddam Hussein "is keeping his head down these days," Mr. Wolfowitz said, "that should not leave the impression that he doesn't continue to do a bunch of things that concern us." Those things include firing at American warplanes patrolling the no-flight zones in southern and northern Iraq.
He also asserted that the Pentagon's main focus remained Afghanistan, which he described as being "at least as treacherous and dangerous now as it was a month or two ago." Last week, a Special Forces soldier was killed in an ambush near the Pakistan border, an attack that a Pentagon spokesman today called "a setup." Remnants of Taliban and Al Qaeda forces continue to operate in southern and eastern Afghanistan.
Pentagon officials said today that American B-52 and B-1 bombers had continued attacking one terrorist enclave near the Pakistan border in an attempt to destroy heavily armed Al Qaeda forces that have been trying to regroup. The bombers struck the base at Zawar Kili, near the town of Khost, on Sunday for the third time in a week, destroying tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery and other heavy weapons that had been piled up there by American troops who searched the compound, officials said.
"One of the most difficult things in the next few months is going to be establishing which of our allies of convenience in the early stages of this war can become real allies over the longer term, and which ones are going to be major troublemakers, and which ones are going to just switch sides," Mr. Wolfowitz said in the interview.
So far, Hamid Karzai, the leader of the interim government in Kabul, has "proven to be an impressive man," Mr. Wolfowitz said. "Whether he's up to the formidable job he has is a different question."
While careful not to identify countries where America might next aim its military might, Mr. Wolfowitz said Somalia, perhaps more than any other place, fitted the bill of a lawless state that draws terrorists like a magnet. The administration has identified Al Itihaad, a militant religious group based in Somalia, as a terrorist organization with ties to Al Qaeda. The United States has also shut down Somalia's major money- transfer company and stepped up reconnaissance flights off its coast.
"Obviously Somalia comes up as a possible candidate for Al Qaeda people to flee to precisely because the government is weak or nonexistent," Mr. Wolfowitz said.
But he acknowledged that American options were limited in Somalia, where, he said, "by definition you don't have a government you can work with." The Central Intelligence Agency, he added, is "looking for exactly those sorts of people" that the United States can use as proxy forces, as it did with anti-Taliban groups in Afghanistan.
In the Philippines, he said the government was eager to quell a rebellion by hundreds of Muslim militants from the Abu Sayyaf group who have been linked to Al Qaeda and have been battling government forces on Basilan Island, in the southern part of the country. American officials have already begun training the country's forces in counterterrorist and Special Operations activities.
American involvement "might include direct support of Philippine military operations," he said. "There's no question that we believe that if they could clear the Abu Sayyaf group out of Basilan Island, that would be a small blow against the extended Al Qaeda network."
But he added that the Manila government was "very anxious to do it themselves," adding: "That's the crucial standard for them. They're very willing to take help within the framework of helping them help themselves."
In Indonesia, Islamic militants have fought with Christians on Sulawesi Island and in Maluku Province, areas where the government "is extremely weak," Mr. Wolfowitz said.
"You see the potential for Muslim extremists and Muslim terrorists to link up with those Muslim groups in Indonesia and find a little corner for themselves in a country that's otherwise quite unfriendly to terrorism," he said. "In the case of Sulawesi, the concern is there isn't enough military to protect the local population or to create the kinds of stable conditions that keep terrorism down."
He said that while Indonesia had expressed a willingness to crack down on terrorists, the government there was fearful of causing a violent backlash among its large Muslim population. He also said the United States was prepared to provide assistance, though the Pentagon was under restrictions about conducting certain joint exercises with the Indonesian military, which has been accused of human rights abuses. Those restrictions, Mr. Wolfowitz said, "really need to be reviewed in the light of Sept. 11."
He said it was unlikely, however, that the United States would consider direct military action in Indonesia, "because it's such a big and disparate place."
Yemen also has pockets or regions of lawlessness that lie outside the control of the central government, he said. "There are very significant back regions of Yemen," he said. "That's a case of an ungoverned piece of a country."
In the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks, the United States put pressure on Yemen to crack down on suspected Al Qaeda cells in the country. Three months later, Yemeni special operations troops exchanged fire with tribesmen in remote parts of the country's central region, as the troops tried to capture suspected members of the terrorist network.
Canada to Send Troops
OTTAWA, Jan. 7 (AP) — Canada will send 750 troops to Afghanistan, where they will join United States forces in the Kandahar region, Canada's defense minister said today.
The minister, Art Eggleton, said the troops would head to Afghanistan in mid-February. The Canadians will be under the command of American forces and will work with an American battalion.
"They will carry out a range of activities including potential combat to destroy residual and combative Al Qaeda pockets," Mr. Eggleton said. "This mission is not without risks."
Copyright 2002 The New York Times Company
